Final score 3-2. Below is what the model published before kick-off, and how each market was graded.
17 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result Hit | Sparta Rotterdam win | 37% |
| Both teams to score Miss | Not both | 50% |
| Over / under Miss | Under 3.5 goals | 77% |
| Double chance Hit | Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II | 72% |
| Clean sheet Miss | Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet | 31% |
| Correct score Miss | 1-1 | 13% |
| First goal | Sparta Rotterdam score first | 46% |
| Half time / full time | Sparta Rotterdam / Sparta Rotterdam | 22% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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