Our model's view of which side opens the scoring across every competition playing on 21 September 2026 — and, above the table, how this market has actually performed.
Kick-off times in UTC · 80 matches priced · rebuilt every few minutes
Measured, not claimed: every first goal prediction we publish is graded once the match is settled, and the misses are counted in the same place as the hits. The full record is in the app's Accuracy Ledger.
| UTC | Match | Competition | First goal | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | Pachuca v Club Tijuana Miss · 2-2 | Liga MX | Pachuca score first | 50% |
| 00:00 | Toluca v Santos Laguna Hit · 2-3 | Liga MX | Toluca score first | 50% |
| 00:30 | Vélez Sarsfield v Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina | Vélez Sarsfield score first | 50% |
| 01:00 | Malacateco FC v Mixco Hit · 1-0 | Liga Nacional | Malacateco FC score first | 50% |
| 01:00 | San Carlos v CS Cartaginés Hit · 1-0 | Primera División | San Carlos score first | 50% |
| 01:15 | Llaneros v Atlético Nacional Hit · 2-0 | Primera A | Llaneros score first | 50% |
| 02:10 | Querétaro v León FC | Liga MX | Querétaro score first | 50% |
| 04:00 | New Caledonia v Solomon Islands | Friendlies | New Caledonia score first | 50% |
| 05:00 | Khovd v Tuv Azarganuud | Premier League | Khovd score first | 47% |
| 07:00 | Bangladesh Women v Myanmar Women | Asian Games Women | Bangladesh Women score first | 53% |
| 07:00 | China Women v Philippines Women | Asian Games Women | China Women score first | 57% |
| 07:00 | South Korea Women v Korea DPR | Asian Games Women | South Korea Women score first | 53% |
| 07:00 | Uzbekistan Women v Hong Kong Women | Asian Games Women | Uzbekistan Women score first | 47% |
| 07:00 | Fiji v Vanuatu | Friendlies | Fiji score first | 50% |
| 08:00 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka v Nyva Ternopil Miss · 1-3 | Persha Liga | Viktoriya Mykolaivka score first | 50% |
| 08:00 | Khovd Western v Erchim Miss · 2-3 | Premier League | Khovd Western score first | 50% |
| 09:00 | Sc Poltava 2 v Atlet | Druha Liga | Sc Poltava 2 score first | 50% |
| 09:00 | Zambia U20 v Comoros U20 Hit · 3-0 | COSAFA U20 Championship | Zambia U20 score first | 50% |
| 09:30 | Penuel v Trostianets | Druha Liga | Penuel score first | 50% |
| 10:30 | Japan Women v Chinese Taipei Women Hit · 4-0 | Asian Games Women | Japan Women score first | 53% |
| 10:30 | Vietnam Women v Thailand Women Miss · 0-0 | Asian Games Women | Vietnam Women score first | 53% |
| 11:00 | Pakhtakor Ii v Shortan | Pro League A | Pakhtakor Ii score first | 53% |
| 11:00 | Lochin v Respublika Fa Miss · 0-3 | Pro League A | Lochin score first | 53% |
| 11:30 | Shirak II v Noah II | First League | Shirak II score first | 50% |
| 11:30 | Andranik v Lernayin Artsakh FC | First League | Andranik score first | 50% |
| 11:30 | Araks Ararat v BKMA II | First League | Araks Ararat score first | 50% |
| 12:00 | Thimphu v Ugyen Academy | Premier League | Thimphu score first | 50% |
| 12:00 | Bolton Wanderers Res. v Queens Park Rangers U21 | Professional Development League | Bolton Wanderers Res. score first | 50% |
| 12:00 | Botswana U20 v Malawi U20 | COSAFA U20 Championship | Botswana U20 score first | 50% |
| 12:30 | Skala 1911 Stryi v Vilkhivtsi | Druha Liga | Skala 1911 Stryi score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Niroye Zamini v Fard Alborz | Azadegan League | Niroye Zamini score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Switzerland U19 v Northern Ireland U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Switzerland U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Czech Republic U19 v Netherlands U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Czech Republic U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Spain U19 v Finland U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Spain U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Czech Republic U19 v Croatia U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Czech Republic U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | France U19 v Republic of Ireland U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | France U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | France U19 v Norway U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | France U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Montenegro U19 v Faroe Islands U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Montenegro U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Northern Ireland U19 v North Macedonia U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Northern Ireland U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Poland U19 v Luxembourg U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Poland U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Poland U19 v Andorra U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Poland U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Scotland U19 v Kazakhstan U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Scotland U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Slovenia U19 v Belarus U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Slovenia U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Sweden U19 v Lithuania U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Sweden U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Wales U19 v Iceland U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Wales U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Denmark U19 v Georgia U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Denmark U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | England U19 v Slovenia U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | England U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | England U19 v Belarus U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | England U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Georgia U19 v San Marino U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Georgia U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Germany U19 v Lithuania U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Germany U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Luxembourg U19 v Andorra U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Luxembourg U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Moldova U19 v Latvia U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Moldova U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Spain U19 v Wales U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Spain U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Cyprus U19 v Albania U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Cyprus U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Czech Republic U19 v Hungary U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Czech Republic U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Greece U19 v Republic of Ireland U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Greece U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Republic of Ireland U19 v Norway U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Republic of Ireland U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Israel U19 v Ukraine U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Israel U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Israel U19 v Romania U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Israel U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Italy U19 v Israel U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Italy U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Italy U19 v Ukraine U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Italy U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Serbia U19 v Azerbaijan U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Serbia U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Serbia U19 v Faroe Islands U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Serbia U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Cyprus U19 v Armenia U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Cyprus U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Slovakia U19 v Turkey U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Slovakia U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Slovakia U19 v Liechtenstein U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Slovakia U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Turkey U19 v Liechtenstein U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Turkey U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Hayq v Olympia Yerevan | First League | Hayq score first | 47% |
| 13:00 | Denmark U19 v San Marino U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Denmark U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Scotland U19 v Kosovo U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Scotland U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 v Georgia U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 v San Marino U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Estonia U19 v Liechtenstein U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Estonia U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Finland U19 v Wales U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Finland U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Greece U19 v Norway U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Greece U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Hungary U19 v Croatia U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Hungary U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Hungary U19 v Netherlands U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Hungary U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Italy U19 v Romania U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Italy U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Kazakhstan U19 v Kosovo U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Kazakhstan U19 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Latvia U19 v Gibraltar U19 | UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification | Latvia U19 score first | 50% |
The same fixtures, priced for a different question.
Every fixture above carries a published probability for which side opens the scoring. The model is fitted on historical results rather than on opinion, it is re-run when a starting XI is confirmed, and each prediction is settled and graded fifteen minutes after full time. Nothing is removed afterwards.
That last part is the difference. A prediction site that shows you today's tips and never mentions yesterday's is asking you to take accuracy on trust. The hit rate, the sample size and the calibration gap at the top of this page are the same numbers the app publishes for free, and they are recomputed after every settlement pass.
A Dixon-Coles model fitted on historical results produces a probability for which side opens the scoring. Team strength, home advantage and recent form are the inputs; the output is a distribution, not a tip.
The number at the top of this page is the measured hit rate over the last 30 days for this exact market, with the count of settled predictions beside it. It moves with the record, including downwards.
The model's probability for the selection shown. It is a calibrated probability, so over a large enough sample the selections shown at 70% should land about 70% of the time - the gap between those two numbers is published as the calibration gap.
No. Vecta Score is not a bookmaker, takes no bets and holds no funds. These are statistical estimates published for information, and outcomes are not guaranteed.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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