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First goal predictions for today's football

Our model's view of which side opens the scoring across every competition playing on 21 September 2026 — and, above the table, how this market has actually performed.

Kick-off times in UTC · 80 matches priced · rebuilt every few minutes

49.2%hit rate, last 30 days
7,489settled predictions
49.4%average confidence stated
0.2 ptsover-confident

Measured, not claimed: every first goal prediction we publish is graded once the match is settled, and the misses are counted in the same place as the hits. The full record is in the app's Accuracy Ledger.

First goal for 21 September 2026

UTCMatchCompetitionFirst goalModel
00:00Pachuca v Club Tijuana
Miss · 2-2
Liga MXPachuca score first50%
00:00Toluca v Santos Laguna
Hit · 2-3
Liga MXToluca score first50%
00:30Vélez Sarsfield v TigreLiga Profesional ArgentinaVélez Sarsfield score first50%
01:00Malacateco FC v Mixco
Hit · 1-0
Liga NacionalMalacateco FC score first50%
01:00San Carlos v CS Cartaginés
Hit · 1-0
Primera DivisiónSan Carlos score first50%
01:15Llaneros v Atlético Nacional
Hit · 2-0
Primera ALlaneros score first50%
02:10Querétaro v León FCLiga MXQuerétaro score first50%
04:00New Caledonia v Solomon IslandsFriendliesNew Caledonia score first50%
05:00Khovd v Tuv AzarganuudPremier LeagueKhovd score first47%
07:00Bangladesh Women v Myanmar WomenAsian Games WomenBangladesh Women score first53%
07:00China Women v Philippines WomenAsian Games WomenChina Women score first57%
07:00South Korea Women v Korea DPRAsian Games WomenSouth Korea Women score first53%
07:00Uzbekistan Women v Hong Kong WomenAsian Games WomenUzbekistan Women score first47%
07:00Fiji v VanuatuFriendliesFiji score first50%
08:00Viktoriya Mykolaivka v Nyva Ternopil
Miss · 1-3
Persha LigaViktoriya Mykolaivka score first50%
08:00Khovd Western v Erchim
Miss · 2-3
Premier LeagueKhovd Western score first50%
09:00Sc Poltava 2 v AtletDruha LigaSc Poltava 2 score first50%
09:00Zambia U20 v Comoros U20
Hit · 3-0
COSAFA U20 ChampionshipZambia U20 score first50%
09:30Penuel v TrostianetsDruha LigaPenuel score first50%
10:30Japan Women v Chinese Taipei Women
Hit · 4-0
Asian Games WomenJapan Women score first53%
10:30Vietnam Women v Thailand Women
Miss · 0-0
Asian Games WomenVietnam Women score first53%
11:00Pakhtakor Ii v ShortanPro League APakhtakor Ii score first53%
11:00Lochin v Respublika Fa
Miss · 0-3
Pro League ALochin score first53%
11:30Shirak II v Noah IIFirst LeagueShirak II score first50%
11:30Andranik v Lernayin Artsakh FCFirst LeagueAndranik score first50%
11:30Araks Ararat v BKMA IIFirst LeagueAraks Ararat score first50%
12:00Thimphu v Ugyen AcademyPremier LeagueThimphu score first50%
12:00Bolton Wanderers Res. v Queens Park Rangers U21Professional Development LeagueBolton Wanderers Res. score first50%
12:00Botswana U20 v Malawi U20COSAFA U20 ChampionshipBotswana U20 score first50%
12:30Skala 1911 Stryi v VilkhivtsiDruha LigaSkala 1911 Stryi score first50%
13:00Niroye Zamini v Fard AlborzAzadegan LeagueNiroye Zamini score first50%
13:00Switzerland U19 v Northern Ireland U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationSwitzerland U19 score first50%
13:00Czech Republic U19 v Netherlands U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationCzech Republic U19 score first50%
13:00Spain U19 v Finland U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationSpain U19 score first50%
13:00Czech Republic U19 v Croatia U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationCzech Republic U19 score first50%
13:00France U19 v Republic of Ireland U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationFrance U19 score first50%
13:00France U19 v Norway U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationFrance U19 score first50%
13:00Montenegro U19 v Faroe Islands U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationMontenegro U19 score first50%
13:00Northern Ireland U19 v North Macedonia U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationNorthern Ireland U19 score first50%
13:00Poland U19 v Luxembourg U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationPoland U19 score first50%
13:00Poland U19 v Andorra U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationPoland U19 score first50%
13:00Scotland U19 v Kazakhstan U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationScotland U19 score first50%
13:00Slovenia U19 v Belarus U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationSlovenia U19 score first50%
13:00Sweden U19 v Lithuania U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationSweden U19 score first50%
13:00Wales U19 v Iceland U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationWales U19 score first50%
13:00Denmark U19 v Georgia U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationDenmark U19 score first50%
13:00England U19 v Slovenia U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationEngland U19 score first50%
13:00England U19 v Belarus U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationEngland U19 score first50%
13:00Georgia U19 v San Marino U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationGeorgia U19 score first50%
13:00Germany U19 v Lithuania U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationGermany U19 score first50%
13:00Luxembourg U19 v Andorra U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationLuxembourg U19 score first50%
13:00Moldova U19 v Latvia U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationMoldova U19 score first50%
13:00Spain U19 v Wales U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationSpain U19 score first50%
13:00Cyprus U19 v Albania U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationCyprus U19 score first50%
13:00Czech Republic U19 v Hungary U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationCzech Republic U19 score first50%
13:00Greece U19 v Republic of Ireland U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationGreece U19 score first50%
13:00Republic of Ireland U19 v Norway U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationRepublic of Ireland U19 score first50%
13:00Israel U19 v Ukraine U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationIsrael U19 score first50%
13:00Israel U19 v Romania U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationIsrael U19 score first50%
13:00Italy U19 v Israel U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationItaly U19 score first50%
13:00Italy U19 v Ukraine U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationItaly U19 score first50%
13:00Serbia U19 v Azerbaijan U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationSerbia U19 score first50%
13:00Serbia U19 v Faroe Islands U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationSerbia U19 score first50%
13:00Cyprus U19 v Armenia U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationCyprus U19 score first50%
13:00Slovakia U19 v Turkey U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationSlovakia U19 score first50%
13:00Slovakia U19 v Liechtenstein U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationSlovakia U19 score first50%
13:00Turkey U19 v Liechtenstein U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationTurkey U19 score first50%
13:00Hayq v Olympia YerevanFirst LeagueHayq score first47%
13:00Denmark U19 v San Marino U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationDenmark U19 score first50%
13:00Scotland U19 v Kosovo U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationScotland U19 score first50%
13:00Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 v Georgia U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationBosnia-Herzegovina U19 score first50%
13:00Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 v San Marino U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationBosnia-Herzegovina U19 score first50%
13:00Estonia U19 v Liechtenstein U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationEstonia U19 score first50%
13:00Finland U19 v Wales U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationFinland U19 score first50%
13:00Greece U19 v Norway U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationGreece U19 score first50%
13:00Hungary U19 v Croatia U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationHungary U19 score first50%
13:00Hungary U19 v Netherlands U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationHungary U19 score first50%
13:00Italy U19 v Romania U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationItaly U19 score first50%
13:00Kazakhstan U19 v Kosovo U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationKazakhstan U19 score first50%
13:00Latvia U19 v Gibraltar U19UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationLatvia U19 score first50%

Other markets

The same fixtures, priced for a different question.

How this page is built

Every fixture above carries a published probability for which side opens the scoring. The model is fitted on historical results rather than on opinion, it is re-run when a starting XI is confirmed, and each prediction is settled and graded fifteen minutes after full time. Nothing is removed afterwards.

That last part is the difference. A prediction site that shows you today's tips and never mentions yesterday's is asking you to take accuracy on trust. The hit rate, the sample size and the calibration gap at the top of this page are the same numbers the app publishes for free, and they are recomputed after every settlement pass.

Frequently asked

How are these first goal predictions produced?

A Dixon-Coles model fitted on historical results produces a probability for which side opens the scoring. Team strength, home advantage and recent form are the inputs; the output is a distribution, not a tip.

How accurate are they?

The number at the top of this page is the measured hit rate over the last 30 days for this exact market, with the count of settled predictions beside it. It moves with the record, including downwards.

What does the percentage next to each match mean?

The model's probability for the selection shown. It is a calibrated probability, so over a large enough sample the selections shown at 70% should land about 70% of the time - the gap between those two numbers is published as the calibration gap.

Is this betting advice?

No. Vecta Score is not a bookmaker, takes no bets and holds no funds. These are statistical estimates published for information, and outcomes are not guaranteed.

Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.

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