Final score 1-0. Below is what the model published before kick-off, and how each market was graded.
25 October 2026 at 11:15 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result Miss | Excelsior win | 44% |
| Both teams to score Miss | Both score | 69% |
| Over / under Miss | Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Double chance Hit | Fortuna Sittard or Excelsior | 77% |
| Clean sheet Miss | Excelsior clean sheet | 19% |
| Correct score Miss | 1-1 | 9% |
| First goal Miss | Excelsior score first | 52% |
| Half time / full time Miss | Excelsior / Excelsior | 27% |
| Total corners Hit | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards Hit | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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