Kick-off 5 October 2026 at 05:00 UTC · Premier League. Probabilities below are the ones published for this fixture; they are re-run when the starting XI is confirmed.
5 October 2026 at 05:00 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ulaanbaatar win | 97% |
| Both teams to score | Both score | 56% |
| Over / under | Over 1.5 goals | 99% |
| Double chance | Ulaanbaatar or draw | 99% |
| Clean sheet | Ulaanbaatar clean sheet | 43% |
| Correct score | 6-0 | 7% |
| First goal | Ulaanbaatar score first | 88% |
| Half time / full time | Ulaanbaatar / Ulaanbaatar | 79% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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