Final score 1-0. Below is what the model published before kick-off, and how each market was graded.
22 October 2026 at 16:45 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result Hit | Sturm Graz win | 77% |
| Both teams to score Hit | Not both | 55% |
| Over / under Miss | Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Double chance Hit | Sturm Graz or draw | 92% |
| Clean sheet Hit | Sturm Graz clean sheet | 51% |
| Correct score Miss | 2-0 | 13% |
| First goal Hit | Sturm Graz score first | 75% |
| Half time / full time Hit | Sturm Graz / Sturm Graz | 53% |
| Total corners Miss | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards Hit | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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