Final score 1-23. Below is what the model published before kick-off, and how each market was graded.
17 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result Hit | Novo Esporte Clube win | 71% |
| Both teams to score Hit | Both score | 53% |
| Over / under Hit | Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Double chance Hit | Draw or Novo Esporte Clube | 88% |
| Clean sheet Miss | Novo Esporte Clube clean sheet | 42% |
| Correct score Miss | 0-2 | 11% |
| First goal | Novo Esporte Clube score first | 71% |
| Half time / full time | Novo Esporte Clube / Novo Esporte Clube | 48% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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