Final score 1-0. Below is what the model published before kick-off, and how each market was graded.
10 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result Hit | Real Madrid win | 60% |
| Both teams to score Miss | Both score | 62% |
| Over / under Miss | Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Double chance Hit | Real Madrid or draw | 81% |
| Clean sheet Hit | Real Madrid clean sheet | 31% |
| Correct score Miss | 2-1 | 10% |
| First goal | Real Madrid score first | 63% |
| Half time / full time | Real Madrid / Real Madrid | 39% |
| Total corners Miss | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards Hit | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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