Kick-off 5 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC · Mineiro - 3. Probabilities below are the ones published for this fixture; they are re-run when the starting XI is confirmed.
5 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | Nacional AC MG win | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Both score | 72% |
| Over / under | Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Double chance | Nacional AC MG or Nova Lavras | 79% |
| Clean sheet | Nacional AC MG clean sheet | 19% |
| Correct score | 2-1 | 8% |
| First goal | Nacional AC MG score first | 55% |
| Half time / full time | Nacional AC MG / Nacional AC MG | 31% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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