Final score 3-2. Below is what the model published before kick-off, and how each market was graded.
12 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result Hit | Mons Calpe win | 79% |
| Both teams to score Miss | Not both | 68% |
| Over / under Hit | Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Double chance Hit | Mons Calpe or draw | 95% |
| Clean sheet Miss | Mons Calpe clean sheet | 65% |
| Correct score Miss | 2-0 | 17% |
| First goal | Mons Calpe score first | 78% |
| Half time / full time | Mons Calpe / Mons Calpe | 55% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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