Final score 6-1. Below is what the model published before kick-off, and how each market was graded.
11 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result Hit | Home United win | 87% |
| Both teams to score Miss | Not both | 63% |
| Over / under Hit | Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Double chance Hit | Home United or draw | 97% |
| Clean sheet Miss | Home United clean sheet | 61% |
| Correct score Miss | 3-0 | 14% |
| First goal Miss | Home United score first | 83% |
| Half time / full time Hit | Home United / Home United | 65% |
| Total corners Hit | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards Hit | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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