Kick-off 4 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC · Liga de Ascenso. Probabilities below are the ones published for this fixture; they are re-run when the starting XI is confirmed.
4 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | AD Carmelita win | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Both score | 55% |
| Over / under | Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Double chance | Futbol Consultants Moravia or AD Carmelita | 73% |
| Clean sheet | AD Carmelita clean sheet | 27% |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 13% |
| First goal | AD Carmelita score first | 48% |
| Half time / full time | AD Carmelita / AD Carmelita | 23% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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