Kick-off 6 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC · UEFA Nations League. Probabilities below are the ones published for this fixture; they are re-run when the starting XI is confirmed.
6 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | Spain win | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Not both | 56% |
| Over / under | Under 3.5 goals | 77% |
| Double chance | Draw or Spain | 83% |
| Clean sheet | Spain clean sheet | 46% |
| Correct score | 0-1 | 14% |
| First goal | Spain score first | 62% |
| Half time / full time | Spain / Spain | 36% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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