Kick-off 5 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC · UEFA Europa League. Probabilities below are the ones published for this fixture; they are re-run when the starting XI is confirmed.
5 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | AZ Alkmaar win | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Not both | 51% |
| Over / under | Under 3.5 goals | 78% |
| Double chance | AZ Alkmaar or draw | 72% |
| Clean sheet | AZ Alkmaar clean sheet | 35% |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 14% |
| First goal | AZ Alkmaar score first | 51% |
| Half time / full time | AZ Alkmaar / AZ Alkmaar | 26% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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