Kick-off 4 November 2026 at 22:30 UTC · Serie A. Probabilities below are the ones published for this fixture; they are re-run when the starting XI is confirmed.
4 November 2026 at 22:30 UTC
| Market | Model says | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | Athletico Paranaense win | 40% |
| Both teams to score | Not both | 50% |
| Over / under | Under 3.5 goals | 77% |
| Double chance | Athletico Paranaense or Vasco DA Gama | 72% |
| Clean sheet | Athletico Paranaense clean sheet | 33% |
| Correct score | 1-1 | 13% |
| First goal | Athletico Paranaense score first | 49% |
| Half time / full time | Athletico Paranaense / Athletico Paranaense | 24% |
| Total corners | Over 8.5 corners | 69% |
| Total cards | Under 5.5 cards | 74% |
Each row is a calibrated probability, not a tip. The model is fitted on historical results, re-run when the lineup lands, and every market here is settled and graded once the match is over — the verdict stays on the page whether it went our way or not. Market-level records live on the predictions board.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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