Our model's view of which side opens the scoring across every competition playing on 23 September 2026 — and, above the table, how this market has actually performed.
Kick-off times in UTC · 79 matches priced · rebuilt every few minutes
Measured, not claimed: every first goal prediction we publish is graded once the match is settled, and the misses are counted in the same place as the hits. The full record is in the app's Accuracy Ledger.
| UTC | Match | Competition | First goal | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | Santa Fe v Deportivo Cali | Primera A | Santa Fe score first | 50% |
| 05:30 | China PR U23 v UAE U23 | Asian Games | China PR U23 score first | 53% |
| 05:30 | Iran U23 v Korea DPR U23 | Asian Games | Iran U23 score first | 53% |
| 08:00 | Gamba Osaka v Tokushima Vortis | Emperor’s Cup | Gamba Osaka score first | 50% |
| 08:00 | Kashima v Ventforet Kofu | Emperor’s Cup | Kashima score first | 50% |
| 08:00 | Kashiwa Reysol v Imabari | Emperor’s Cup | Kashiwa Reysol score first | 50% |
| 08:00 | Kyoto Sanga v Fujieda MYFC | Emperor’s Cup | Kyoto Sanga score first | 50% |
| 08:00 | Machida Zelvia v Tochigi City | Emperor’s Cup | Machida Zelvia score first | 50% |
| 08:00 | Vissel Kobe v Sagan Tosu | Emperor’s Cup | Vissel Kobe score first | 50% |
| 09:30 | ATK Mohun Bagan v Sreenidi Deccan | IFA Shield | ATK Mohun Bagan score first | 50% |
| 10:00 | Metalist 1925 Women v Torreense Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | Metalist 1925 Women score first | 57% |
| 10:00 | Lesotho U20 v Angola U20 | COSAFA U20 Championship | Lesotho U20 score first | 50% |
| 10:00 | South Africa U20 v Eswatini U20 | COSAFA U20 Championship | South Africa U20 score first | 50% |
| 10:30 | Japan U23 v Thailand U23 | Asian Games | Japan U23 score first | 53% |
| 10:30 | Kyrgyz Republic U23 v Hong Kong U23 | Asian Games | Kyrgyz Republic U23 score first | 53% |
| 12:00 | Iceland U17 v Gibraltar U17 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification | Iceland U17 score first | 50% |
| 12:00 | Thimphu City v Transport United | Premier League | Thimphu City score first | 57% |
| 12:00 | Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 v Greece U17 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification | Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 score first | 50% |
| 12:00 | Rubin Kazan U20 v Krasnodar U19 | Youth Championship | Rubin Kazan U20 score first | 50% |
| 12:30 | Tzeirey Tamra v Hapoel Beit Shean | Liga Alef | Tzeirey Tamra score first | 57% |
| 13:00 | PAOK Women v Spartak Myjava Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | PAOK Women score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Japan U18 v Ukraine U18 | Friendlies | Japan U18 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Malawi U20 v Comoros U20 | COSAFA U20 Championship | Malawi U20 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Zambia U20 v Botswana U20 | COSAFA U20 Championship | Zambia U20 score first | 50% |
| 13:00 | Italy U20 Women v Spain U20 Women | World Cup - U20 - Women | Italy U20 Women score first | 50% |
| 13:30 | Levoča v Liptovský Mikuláš | Cup | Levoča score first | 50% |
| 14:00 | Velež Nevesinje v Zvijezda 09 | 1st League - RS | Velež Nevesinje score first | 50% |
| 14:00 | Drina Zvornik v Rudar Prijedor | 1st League - RS | Drina Zvornik score first | 50% |
| 14:00 | FK Romanija Pale v Potkozarje | 1st League - RS | FK Romanija Pale score first | 50% |
| 14:00 | Sagrada Esperança v Kabuscorp | Girabola | Sagrada Esperança score first | 57% |
| 14:00 | FK Majevica Lopare v Laktaši | 1st League - RS | FK Majevica Lopare score first | 53% |
| 14:00 | Leotar v Famos Vojkovići | 1st League - RS | Leotar score first | 47% |
| 14:00 | Slavija v Kozara Gradiška | 1st League - RS | Slavija score first | 50% |
| 14:00 | Kladno v Baník Ostrava | Cup | Kladno score first | 50% |
| 14:00 | Hapoel Azor v Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | Liga Alef | Hapoel Azor score first | 53% |
| 14:00 | Finland U17 v France U17 | Friendlies | Finland U17 score first | 50% |
| 14:30 | Iraq v Oman | Gulf Cup of Nations | Iraq score first | 50% |
| 14:40 | Al Arabi v Emirates Club | Presidents Cup | Al Arabi score first | 50% |
| 14:40 | Al Bataeh v Palm City | Presidents Cup | Al Bataeh score first | 47% |
| 14:40 | Al Jazira Al Hamra v Forte Virtus | Presidents Cup | Al Jazira Al Hamra score first | 47% |
| 14:40 | Gulf United v Al Fujairah SC | Presidents Cup | Gulf United score first | 47% |
| 15:00 | Dreams v Medeama | Premier League | Dreams score first | 50% |
| 15:00 | Slovan Liberec Women v Rosenborg Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | Slovan Liberec Women score first | 50% |
| 15:00 | Shooting Stars v Katsina United | NPFL | Shooting Stars score first | 57% |
| 15:00 | Doma United v Plateau United | NPFL | Doma United score first | 53% |
| 15:00 | Inter Lagos v Kano Pillars | NPFL | Inter Lagos score first | 53% |
| 15:00 | Kwara United v Nasarawa United | NPFL | Kwara United score first | 53% |
| 15:00 | Bendel Insurance v Ikorodu City | NPFL | Bendel Insurance score first | 57% |
| 15:00 | Niger Tornadoes v Warri Wolves | NPFL | Niger Tornadoes score first | 53% |
| 15:00 | Enyimba v Sporting Lagos | NPFL | Enyimba score first | 57% |
| 15:00 | Barau FC v Abia Warriors | NPFL | Barau FC score first | 53% |
| 15:00 | Enugu Rangers v Ranchers Bees | NPFL | Enugu Rangers score first | 53% |
| 15:00 | Rivers United FC v Kun Khalifat FC | NPFL | Rivers United FC score first | 53% |
| 15:00 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel v Ironi Nesher | Liga Alef | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel score first | 53% |
| 15:00 | Videm v Hajdina | 3. SNL - East | Videm score first | 47% |
| 15:30 | HJK v Brann Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | HJK score first | 50% |
| 16:00 | Bregalnica Štip v Skopje | First League | Bregalnica Štip score first | 50% |
| 16:00 | Värnamo Women v Kristianstad | Svenska Cupen - Women | Värnamo Women score first | 57% |
| 16:00 | Sandviken Women v Umeå | Svenska Cupen - Women | Sandviken Women score first | 50% |
| 16:00 | Birmingham Legion v Brooklyn | USL Championship | Birmingham Legion score first | 50% |
| 16:00 | Grorud v Moss | NM Cupen | Grorud score first | 50% |
| 16:00 | Sparta Praha Women v Farul Constanța Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | Sparta Praha Women score first | 47% |
| 16:00 | FH Hafnarfjörður Women v Eintracht Frankfurt Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | FH Hafnarfjörður Women score first | 57% |
| 16:00 | Breiðablik Women v Czarni Sosnowiec Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | Breiðablik Women score first | 57% |
| 16:00 | Brøndby v Sporting CP Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | Brøndby score first | 50% |
| 16:00 | Minsk v Fenerbahce Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | Minsk score first | 57% |
| 16:00 | Ironi Beit Shemesh v Nordia Jerusalem | Liga Alef | Ironi Beit Shemesh score first | 53% |
| 16:00 | Hapoel Marmorek v Shimshon Tel Aviv | Liga Alef | Hapoel Marmorek score first | 53% |
| 16:00 | Azerbaijan v Tajikistan | Friendlies | Azerbaijan score first | 50% |
| 16:00 | Wiedenbrück v VfL Osnabrück | Friendlies Clubs | Wiedenbrück score first | 50% |
| 16:00 | Gibraltar v Sao Tome and Principe | Friendlies | Gibraltar score first | 50% |
| 16:30 | Korea DPR U20 v Colombia U20 Women | World Cup - U20 - Women | Korea DPR U20 score first | 50% |
| 16:45 | Servette Chênois Women v Lyon Women | UEFA Champions League Women | Servette Chênois Women score first | 47% |
| 16:45 | OH Leuven Women v Roma Women | UEFA Champions League Women | OH Leuven Women score first | 47% |
| 16:45 | St. Pölten Women v Malmö FF Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | St. Pölten Women score first | 50% |
| 17:00 | Hu Ge Women v Uppsala Women | Svenska Cupen - Women | Hu Ge Women score first | 57% |
| 17:00 | Alingsås Women v Elfsborg | Svenska Cupen - Women | Alingsås Women score first | 50% |
| 17:00 | VfL Wolfsburg Women v Sturm Graz Women | UEFA Women’s Champions League | VfL Wolfsburg Women score first | 50% |
| 17:00 | Älvsjö AIK Women v Djurgården | Svenska Cupen - Women | Älvsjö AIK Women score first | 57% |
The same fixtures, priced for a different question.
Every fixture above carries a published probability for which side opens the scoring. The model is fitted on historical results rather than on opinion, it is re-run when a starting XI is confirmed, and each prediction is settled and graded fifteen minutes after full time. Nothing is removed afterwards.
That last part is the difference. A prediction site that shows you today's tips and never mentions yesterday's is asking you to take accuracy on trust. The hit rate, the sample size and the calibration gap at the top of this page are the same numbers the app publishes for free, and they are recomputed after every settlement pass.
A Dixon-Coles model fitted on historical results produces a probability for which side opens the scoring. Team strength, home advantage and recent form are the inputs; the output is a distribution, not a tip.
The number at the top of this page is the measured hit rate over the last 30 days for this exact market, with the count of settled predictions beside it. It moves with the record, including downwards.
The model's probability for the selection shown. It is a calibrated probability, so over a large enough sample the selections shown at 70% should land about 70% of the time - the gap between those two numbers is published as the calibration gap.
No. Vecta Score is not a bookmaker, takes no bets and holds no funds. These are statistical estimates published for information, and outcomes are not guaranteed.
Every market on every match, the edge against the market price and the AI panel live in the app - and the Accuracy Ledger is free in it.
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